Will smartphone and PC prices rise in 2026? The relationship between AI generation and memory shortages

Prices of smartphones and PCs, which are essential to our daily lives, have been rising all over the world since 2026. Behind this is the rapid spread of generative AI (artificial intelligence that automatically creates text and images).A large amount of memory (a component that temporarily stores data) is required to run generative AI.This has had a major impact on the entire semiconductor market.

Why is the evolution of AI linked to the prices of the smartphones and PCs we buy?

Why generative AI requires so much memory

Generative AI uses massive amounts of data to learn and produce answers. Memory supports this calculation. AI data centers often use a special type of memory called "HBM (High Bandwidth Memory)" for high-speed processing. HBM has a structure in which regular DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) is stacked vertically, making it suitable for AI calculations.

This surge in demand has led semiconductor manufacturers to prioritize production for the more profitable AI server market.

How memory shortages occur on smartphones and PCs

Factories that make memory cannot easily switch production lines. Increasing production of memory for AI will reduce the supply for smartphones and PCs. In fact, much of the memory materials and wafers (the base of semiconductors) have been diverted to AI-related applications, causing market prices to rise.
In early 2026, some memory pricesIt has increased significantly compared to the pastIt is reported that.

Manufacturers reveal the reality of price increases

Smartphone and PC manufacturers cannot afford to simply shoulder the cost of rising memory prices. London-based Nothing and South Korea's Samsung have explained that they will need to adjust their product prices. In the PC sector, Dell and HP have also indicated the possibility of raising prices.
Research firm IDC has analyzed that the average price of PCs and smartphones will increase by several percent in 2026.

Semiconductor factories cannot be increased immediately
The construction of a semiconductor factory requiresIt will require an investment of several hundred billion yen and take about three to five years.It is said that it will be difficult to return production systems that have been switched to AI to their original state in the short term. For this reason, it has been pointed out that the effects of memory shortages may continue until 2027 or beyond.

The Role of Semiconductor Companies in Japan and the World

NVIDIA and TSMC are key players in the AI ​​semiconductor market, while Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron dominate the global memory market.
Japanese companies are also important. Sony has a large market share in image sensors, Kioxia produces flash memory, and Tokyo Electron and Advantest are used worldwide in semiconductor manufacturing equipment and inspection equipment.

Research firm IDC predicts growth rate of PC market shipments

While positive growth is expected in 2025 compared to the previous year,Negative growth is likely in 2026 under all possible scenariosis shown.
IDC believes that memory shortages caused by growing demand for generative AI and the resulting price hikes will affect PC replacement decisions for businesses and individuals. Higher prices will lead to more people postponing purchases, resulting in a decline in shipments.

My Feelings, Then and Now

• The spread of generative AI is driving a surge in demand for AI memory
• Semiconductor manufacturers prioritize production for AI, resulting in memory shortages for smartphones and PCs
• Rising prices of smartphones and PCs may become a real problem in 2026
• Semiconductor factories cannot be expanded immediately, and the impact is expected to continue for several years.

While the evolution of generative AI has made our lives more convenient, it has also had a more immediate impact on our lives in the form of price. The prices of smartphones and PCs are not simply determined by the manufacturers themselves, but are linked to the flow of semiconductor factories and technological developments around the world.
Japan is also home to companies that support the world in the fields of semiconductor equipment and sensors. Take a look at the devices around you and find out what technologies and industries are involved. Learning about technological trends can give you hints for thinking about your future studies and careers.